Daily Business Report-Feb. 19, 2018

Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, left, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, both Democrats, are the gubernatorial frontrunners. (Images via Shutterstock)

It Looks Like a Two-Man Race for Governor:

Gavin Newsom vs. Antonio Villaraigosa

the Likely Foes

By Dan Walters CALmatters Columnist

Well folks, it looks like we may have an old-fashioned, down-to-the-wire political race this year for governor, something Californians haven’t seen for quite a few years.

Antonio Villaraigosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, has pulled into a virtual tie with Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the long-time frontrunner, in the latest statewide pollby the Public Policy Institute of California. Newsom’s standing in PPIC’s polling hasn’t budged much in the last year. He was at 22 percent among likely voters last May; 23 percent in September; 26 percent in December and then dropped back to 23 percent inPPIC’s January poll.

Menawhile, Villaraigosa, just 17 percent in May and 12 percent in September, clawed back to 17 percent in December and climbed to 21 percent in January.

Most interestingly, the two Democrats are in a dead heat at 32 percent each among Democratic voters, erasing Newsom’s 12 percent lead in December and indicating that next weekend’s Democratic state convention in San Diego could be very lively.

State Treasurer John Chiang, another Democrat, remains stuck in single digits, as do Democrat Delaine Eastin and all three of the Republican hopefuls. Amanda Renteria, a former Hillary Clinton aide who has been working for Attorney General Xavier Becerra, also pulled papers to run last week, but isn’t in the polling mix yet, of course. She has thepotential of taking some Latino voter support from Villaraigosa, but the gap between the two frontrunners and everyone else is immense.

Unless she or one of the other current also-rans can pull off a miracle, it’s likely that Newsom and Villaraigosa will be the June primary election’s top two vote-getters and then face each other in November for the governorship.

The Newsom-Villaraigosa duel has tightened as the two frontrunners have sharpened their ideological differences. Newsom, who came into politics as a pro-business moderate, has shifted to the left, embracing the uber-liberal Berniecrat wing of the Democratic Party and its agenda, such as universal health care.

Meanwhile, Villaraiogosa, a one-time labor union organizer, has hewed closer to the centerline of the state as a whole, clearly looking ahead to November.

Villaraigosa’s positioning was highlighted last week when he gained endorsements from police organizations, while Newsom’s was underscored by an endorsement from the very liberal Service Employees International Union. He also has support from the California Nurses Association, which has pushed for universal health care and been the Berniecrat wing’s most visible patron.

If, as now seems increasingly likely, Newsom and Villaraigosa are destined for a head-to-head duel, the early ideological positioning could be the key factor. Newsom seems to be betting that the antipathy to President Trump is so fierce in California and such a motivating factor that embracing the Democratic left will be an advantage. However, he should be worried that after years of official and unofficial campaigning, he’s still favored by less than a quarter of the state’s likely voters.

Villaraigosa, meanwhile, is betting on California’s history over the past several decades of electing more-or-less centrist governors, including the man both hope to succeed, Jerry Brown. His dramatic rise in the polls could open the wallets of potential campaign donors and give him the wherewithal to make it a real horse race.

CALmatters is a public interest journalism venture committed to explaining how California’s state Capitol works and why it matters. For more stories by Dan Walters, go to calmatters.org/commentary.

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Workshop for Businesses:

‘Financing Your Exports’

The SBA San Diego District Office, in conjunction with the North San Diego SBDC, will present “Financing Your Exports,” a Feb. 22 workshop providing local businesses with information on loan programs and other financing options to help them compete in the global marketplace.

The workshop will be held from 9 a.m. to noon at the North San Diego SBDC, 2075 Las Palmas Drive, in Carlsbad. It is free, but registration is required. Register at:  https://feb22-financeexports.eventbrite.com.

Presentations to include:

• SBA guaranteed loan programs to facilitate export transactions. Presented by Martin Selander, international trade specialist, SBA U.S. Export Assistance Center.
• Commercial Export Credit Insurance As A Tool To Protect And Grow International Business. Presented by: Mabel Luen, western regional director, Meridian Finance Group.
• International Trade Finance & Payment Options. Presented by Debbie Gelbach, first vice president, trade officer, international trade finance, Banner Bank.
• How the California STEP Program Can Help You Connect with International Customers. Presented by Victor Castillo, director, San Diego Center for International Trade Development.

 

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Democrats Up, Republicans Down

as California Registration Rises

Times of San Diego

Secretary of State Alex Padilla announced Friday registered voters in California have increased by more than 1.3 million over the past four years, with Democrats and those expressing no party preference growing.

The report showed 18,980,481 registered voters in California on Jan. 2, 1,320,224 more than at the same time before the last gubernatorial primary.

Democrats were big gainers over the past four years, adding 775,464 voters to reach 44.63 percent of the electorate, while Republicans lost 245,407 and dropped to 25.44 percent.

But voters with no part preference showed the biggest increase — 1,036,187 — to reach 24.95 percent of the electorate.

Padilla’s report is the first of three scheduled before the the June 5 gubernatorial primary. The next will be 60 days in advance and the final one 15 days before.

“California’s statewide primary is fast approaching—make sure you are registered to vote on candidates and ballot measures that will shape the direction of our state,” Padilla said. “If you’ve moved or changed your name since the last election, you’ll need to update your registration.”

Registration is available online at registertovote.ca.gov.