SD METRO/Probolsky Research Poll- San Diego Mayor’s Race

SD METRO/Probolsky Research Poll

DeMaio and Filner in Dead Heat
In Race for Mayor of San Diego

San Diego Councilman Carl DeMaio and Congressman Bob Filner are in a dead heat in the race for San Diego mayor, according to a SD METRO/Probolsky Research poll. “The race for mayor is remarkably close, as the candidates are separated by less than 1 percent,” said pollster Adam Probolsky.

The telephone poll of likely voters, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, showed DeMaio favored by 41.3 percent of the voters and Filner with 40.5 percent, with 18.2 percent unsure or refused to answer.

The two candidates exhibit similar intensity among their supporters. 15.2 percent say they have already voted for DeMaio while 13.2 percent say they have already cast their ballots for Filner. 16.2 percent say they will definitely vote for DeMaio while 17.7 percent say they will definitely vote for Filner.

DeMaio shows strength among men, Republicans, those born in the U.S., those aged 55+, very high propensity voters (those who have voted in five out of the last five elections), those who vote by mail, those registered to vote for more than 10 years, those from Council Districts 5, 6, and 7.

Filner enjoys greater support among women, Democratic voters and Decline to State (DTS) voters (althought DTS women are divided), those aged 18-34, Election Day voters, those registered to vote for less than a year and those from Council Districts 3, 4, 8 and 9.

The poll also showed support for Proposition Z on the Nov. 6 ballot, the San Diego Unified School District’s $2.8 billion bond proposal, falling short of the required 55 percent needed to win. The poll showed 54 percent of those polled favoring the measure, 29.5 percent opposed and 16.5 percent unsure or refused to anser.

The intensity of support for Proposition Z is significantly greater that that of the opposition. 19.9 percent say they have already voted yes, vs. 12.5 percent who have voted no, and 19.9 percent say they will definitely vote yes, vs. 12.5 percent who say they will definitely vote no.

Proposition Z enjoys greatest support among women, Democratic and Decline to State voters, those aged 18-64, Election Day voters and those from every City Council district except District 5.

In the presidential race poll, President Barack Obama, a Democrat, was favored by 57.7 percent of the likely voters, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee, was favored by 32.6 percent.

Polling Information

A total of 402 surveys were collected. A survey of this size yields a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percent with a 95 percent degree of confidence. Interviews were conducted with voters on both landline and cell phones and were conducted in English and Spanish languages.

For the full poll report, visit:

www.probolskyresearch.com/san-diego-metroprobolsky-research-poll-demaio-and-filner-in-dead-heat