Northbound traffic backups like these at the Mexican border will ease by 2015 if a new border crossing gets financed for east Otay Mesa.

In December 2001, San Diego City Council declared a state of economic emergency due to the sudden drop in northbound border crossings after the 9/11 terrorist attack. Baja Californians in droves stopped crossing to San Diego due to several hour delays caused by very thorough auto and pedestrian inspections. Adding stress to the delays was the fear factor of not knowing if terrorists would attack in San Diego.

San Diego felt the economic pain, which punctuated the interdependence of the San Diego-Baja region. In time, fears subsided, and the cross-border flow of traffic was to some degree speeded, although delays measured in hours still persist and continue to be an economic impediment on both sides of the border.

As we reported here in August, a study conducted by the San Diego Association of Governments and California Department of Transportation, “Economic Impacts of Wait Times at the San Diego-Baja California Border,” concluded “a 45-minute northbound border crossing delay costs the San Diego-Baja California (Tijuana-Tecate-Rosarito-Ensenada) economy $2.5 billion each year. Every additional 15-minute delay adds another $1 billion. So a 2 1/4-hour crossing delay, now fast becoming the norm, means a regional economic loss of $8.5 billion a year.”

In November 2007, the tables were turned. Americans and other countries’ tourists in great numbers stopped visiting Baja due to reports Americans were in danger of being held up along the coastal highway from Tijuana to Ensenada, cars were being stolen and rogue policemen were shaking down visitors.

Mexico President Felipe Calderon declared war on the drug thugs as the capos turned on each other for more control of the hugely profitable smuggling and trafficking business. The U.S. and Mexican press had a field day sensationalizing the events and for months Baja’s economy, 40 percent of which depends on tourism, suffered. Now it seems that Americans are flocking back to Baja. Why?

The short answer is saving money trumps fear. Gasoline is available anywhere in Baja for about $2.55 a gallon, a $2 a gallon saving from what it costs in San Diego. Savings on diesel fuel are even greater, with American demand catching Baja shorthanded.

Once again, events highlight the regional economic interdependence.

Waiting to fuel up his Ford pickup, Robert Kline of Orange County said once he began seeing nightly news reports on the cars crossing for gas, he figured things can’t be that bad. So he returned to Baja and his favorite weekend retreat. Kline is not alone and this summer travel patterns will begin to approach normal.

But a simple return to “normal” is not really a good option for San Diego and Baja California. “Normal” means continuing to lose more than $8 billion a year due to border crossing delays, and those amounts will swell if border delay times continue to increase.

If the San Diego-Baja stars align right, the answer may lie with the proposed Otay Mesa East Port of Entry. A new study from the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce and Economic Research Bureau estimates the economic benefits over a 10-year period would be $31.6 billion.

The new port is “likely to happen” but not a certainty. A number of tasks remain. Among them are obtaining the environmental clearances and securing the Presidential Permit every new port of entry requires. Expectations are that both these items will be completed this year. Soon after environmental compliances comes the matter of financing. A revenue bond issuance in 2010 is planned for obtaining the financing, which at this time is pegged from $550 million to $660 million. If it all goes well, construction will begin in 2012 and be operational by 2015.

In the meantime, we need to survive “normal” and pray that nothing happens to get us off track. Stay tuned. We will keep you posted.

Patrick Osio Jr. can be reached at posiojr@sandiegometro.com. The veteran consultant also has issued The Mexican Perspective, an intensive primer on business culture and protocol. Copies are available at hispanicvista.com/sales/book_sale.htm.